By Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin
How will the area be ready to feed just about nine billion humans in 2050 and nonetheless preserve the ecosystems? during this standpoint, INRA and CIRAD introduced the initiative, in 2006, to advance a foresight venture for analysing matters bearing on the world's nutrition and agricultural platforms at the 2050 timeline. This ebook presents an artificial presentation of the most conclusions that this foresight venture has yielded. First, it recapitulates the most statistical references for the interval 1961 to 2003, earlier than happening to explain the Agribiom simulation software used to calculate nutrients biomass source use balances. eventualities at the 2050 timeline are then thought of: Agrimonde cross is a trend-based situation that bets on financial progress to feed the area, in a context the place environmental safeguard isn't really a concern; by contrast, the assumption in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the area whereas protecting its ecosystems.
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Extra resources for Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050
The same applies to the regional totals of a particular zoning of the world. 2) (MA 2005b). The distribution of our entities across the six MA regions is detailed in Appendix 1. This zoning delimits regions considered to be relatively homogeneous according to some indicators. ). This grouping of areas and change of scale of analysis is necessary, even though it raises various important questions in the estimation of certain values, as in the development and application of models. The “Belgium-Luxemburg” zone was maintained, whereas from 2000 onwards, the series pertaining to food balances had no data for this set or for either of its units separately (Belgium or Luxemburg).
The examination of these data reveals certain difficulties: • interpretation of “All crops” and “Mixed inputs” aggregates is difficult due to fuzzy definitions, • the areas presented in the three sources (FAO and IIASA 2000; Fischer et al. ) is not provided (probably 1992/1993), • GAEZ potentials are not expressed by category of current land use, except for forests. ), but these data have proved to be inaccessible. Food Biomass Resource-Use Balances As announced in the introduction to this chapter, the core subject of Agribiom is the balance—either reconstituted for the past or simulated for the future—between food biomass resources and their use, with three particularities.
With some aggregated categories, including “cereal crops” and “all crops”), by input level (low, intermediate and high) and by the use or otherwise of irrigation (at least for the high and intermediate input levels), for four “suitability classes” for agriculture: VS (very suitable), S (suitable), MS (moderately suitable) and mS The crop catalogue database provides a quantified description of LUT. Factors included are crop characteristics such as: duration of crop growth cycle, duration of individual crop development stages, photosynthetic pathway, crop adaptability group, maximum leaf area index, harvest index, development stage-specific, crop water requirement coefficients, yield reduction factors relating to moisture stress and yield loss, food content coefficients (energy, protein), extraction/conversion rates, crop by-product/residue coefficients, and commodity aggregation weights.